10 Jun 2014

European Bond Markets have come full Circle

A few years ago (2005) we warned that anyone continuing to hold Italian government bonds yielding a measly 15 basis points more then German Bunds would be reckless. Now it is time to put out the warning again. While conditions may not yet be as extreme as in those days it is only prudent to consider an exit and take what is effectively a free option. Unless you believe in full political and fiscal union in the Eurozone this prepares you for the next (inevitable?) economic and financial storm.

7 Jun 2014

TLTRO - a can of worms

Last week's announcement by the head of the ECB, Don Draghi, that the Eurocrats will pump up to € 400 billion into a 'targetted' long-term refinancing operation immediately makes me curious about how exactly this new bureaucratic monster is supposed to operate.
Leaving aside the question whether or not this new confetti money will do much good to the real economy in the Eurozone area there is a number of problems even a cursory look at the scheme brings to mind. So when one member of the Commentariat calls the TLTRO the "Star of the Show" (Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank) we would warn him to be less star-struck and more dispassionate. But maybe his employer really does need this shot in the arm (or gift from heaven, maybe that is the star Moec refers to)?
So I cannot wait for the full details to be published. A few critical points that need answers: Who shall be the beneficiaries of the additional lending? Giant Buy-out funds speculating on ever-rising share prices certainly will not be among them though there is a displacement effect as banks may well use the TLTRO money to fund one group of clients and therefore have more money available to property, buy-out groups and companies seeking to finance M+A deals.
And what exactly counts as a small (and possibly mid-sized) borrower? And who is going to monitor that the TLTRO money really goes into ADDITIONAL lending to this privileged group of clients. And what if most or all of the lending is done in 'stable' economies such as Germany or Austria?
One thing is certain - programs such as these will inevitably lead to additional jobs for the boys and increase the ever-expanding number of bureaucrats working for the ECB, the local Central Banks and favored 'Consultants' charging exorbitant fees that are ultimately paid by savers and taxpayers who as usual have no say in these dirigist extravaganzas.

2 Jun 2014

Bond business - down but not out

My prognosis for interest rates, esp bond rates, for the next few years gives a high probability that rates will meander around a relatively low base level. So the view that the bond trading business will be less profitable from now on is quite justified. But one has to remember that volumes during the previous 5-10 years were abnormally high. Declining and/or volatile interest rates are manna for bond traders. In addition, many innovations - some useful, some less so - in the bond market created new business opportunities. But there are no new products on the horizon, and some 'innovations' turned out to be duds. But taking all this into consideration, given the enormous volume of outstanding bonds and the large number of investors and issuers in a globalised bond market one can expect a good but down-sized bond market business from now on.